We’ll See…

Below is one of my favorite quotes from Charlie Wilson’s War.  After millions of dollars worth of weaponry were pumped into Afghanistan so the Mujahideen could defeat the Red Army, Gust Avercados (Philip Seymor Hoffman) curbs Charlie Wilson’s (Tom Hanks) enthusiasm about the seemingly successful military campaign:

There’s a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse… and everybody in the village says, “How wonderful, the boy got a horse.” And the Zen master says, “We’ll see.” Two years later the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, “How terrible.” And the Zen master says, “We’ll see.” Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight … except the boy can’t ’cause his leg’s all messed up.  And everybody in the village says, “How wonderful.” The Zen master says, “We’ll see.”

And on and on it goes.  To add some color to this, I tend to think that the French Revolution is the most consequential event in recent history.  Why?  Well, if it wasn’t for the French Revolution, we wouldn’t have had Napoleon Bonaparate.  And if it wasn’t for Napoleon Bonaparte, we would not have had Napoleon III.  And if it wasn’t for Napoleon III, there may not have been a Franco-Prussian War.  And if it wasn’t for the Franco-Prussian War and its unsustainable peace, France would not have lost the territories of Alsace-Lorraine and there may not have been a World War I.  If it wasn’t for WWI and the crushing defeat and punishment of Germany, Hitler would not have come to power.  And if it wasn’t for Hitler, there would not have been a World War II.  Who knows what the world would look like today if the French didn’t cut off all of those heads almost two and a quarter centuries ago?

The course of history is extraordinarily complex and this is all a bit of an oversimplification.  But I think it’s safe to say that the complete comprehension of potential consequences resulting from such events is beyond human foresight.

“Hitler is defeated! How wonderful!”  We’ll see.  “The Soviet Union is no more!  Communism is defeated!  How wonderful!”  We’ll see.  “Afghanistan and Iraq are flourishing democracies!  How wonderful!”  We’ll see.