Filibuster-Proof Majorities are Fragile

This would be bigger news if swine flu wasn’t busy eradicating the human race, but the democrats are now in position to have a filibuster proof majority in Congress after Arlen Specter decided to play the Benedict Arnold card.  I came across this comment over at the Volokh Conspiracy today:

In 1965, the Democrats had a 68-32 advantage in the Senate and LBJ as president. Within four years, Nixon was president.

In 1977, the Democrats had a 61-39 advantage in the Senate and Carter as president. Within four years, Reagan was president.

Question: Is today like 1965 and 1977, and conditions exist for another GOP comeback? Or are things different? (And if so, how and why? Luck? Bad governing? Dynamic candidate?)

My thoughts on this question: Barack Obama seems like a more dynamic candidate than either LBJ or JC.  But I don’t think that will be enough to save him and the democrats if his policies aren’t perceived as successful.  There is a fundamental ideological divide in this country that the stimulus bill has exacerbated.  If, three years from now, history shows that the stimulus was full of airports to nowhere, he might lose some key support.  To this end, Obama’s “stimulus cop,” Vice President Joe Biden, was quoted on the phone with a stimulus recipient on Sunday’s episode of 60 Minutes as saying, “But don’t come back and tell me you built a swimming pool because it doesn’t pass the smell test.”  Hopefully Joe’s tough talk works.  And hopefully the Biden “smell test” isn’t the only weapon in the administration’s arsenal.

But what’s clear is that Republicans have gone back to their small government roots in an effort to distinguish themselves from the administration’s policies.  This new/old platform could strike a chord with voters depending on how things work out.  Obama’s fate is thus intertwined with the perception of the stimulus, the state of the economy, and any other spontaneous and intervening variable that this world has so often proved capable of producing.